The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is how many seats President Biden has comfortably held in 2020 that are actually under threat a week later. And if you’re looking for upheaval in the House, the best places to watch might be blue states where there are no statewide competitive races, Democratic governors are underperforming, and candidates in the GOPs were able to grasp high crime and inflation.
“I’ve never seen an election where the signs are so divergent and … lumpy,” said a veteran Democratic strategist familiar with polls across a wide range of races. “It’s less nationalized than we’re used to, and there’s more weakness in the blue end of the battlefield,” the strategist said, pointing to late-emerging issues in the California and New York districts. York that Donald Trump lost 14 to 20 points. .
This week, we move ten notes in the direction of the GOP — all in very blue states and all in districts carried by Biden between eight and 20 points in 2020. Three are open seats where the absence of an incumbent has brought the GOP closer. of